Trade Research

The potential effects of TTIP on Bulgaria: Facts Versus Fallacies

2015

This paper aims to fill the analytic gap on the topic of TTIP and its effects on the Bulgarian economy. The following research makes use of official Bulgarian and international statistics, and employs the tools of economic analysis to reach its analytic conclusions. On the one hand IME’s economists researched the potential direct effects of the treaty on the export of goods from Bulgaria to the US, on American investment in Bulgaria, and on the consumption of Bulgarian households. On the other, the authors also analysed the potential indirect effects on the Bulgarian economy via the so-called supply chains. Supply chains constitute a sizeable and continuously growing indirect export from Bulgaria to the United States. More specifically, Bulgarian producers are participating more and more actively in such chains as suppliers of raw resources and components for European manufacturers that then sell their final products on the American market.

We hope that this paper will lead to a better understanding of the potential effects of the future free-trade treaty between the EU and the USA on the Bulgarian economy. Some of the most widespread myths about the treaty are also explicitly addressed, such as those relating to the competitiveness of Bulgarian exports and the existing tariff and non-tariff barriers between the Bulgarian and American markets. Wherever possible, a quantitative evaluation of the potential effects is also included.