Economic Policy Review ISSN 1313 - 0544

Rumors worthy of Nobel Price

Author: Peter Ganev / 31.10.2007
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The former US vice president Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change with the UN received the Nobel Peace Price for 2007. Gore received the price for his movie "The Inconvenient truth", which is focused on the changes of the World climate and the possible influence of human activities on it.  The Intergovernmental panel for Climate Change (IPCC) was awarded the price for its research on the role of human activities as factor of global worming. IPCC was founded in 1988 and includes 2 500 scientists from over 130 countries. This year the Panel issued a report which throws some light on most of the significant changes in the World's climate.

The movies "The Inconvenient truth" and the above mentioned report of IPCC are the bases of all claims about the negative effect of humane activities on the climate. The enormous public outcry and the governments' interest with the problem made the climate changes the top priority of mankind together with the fight against poverty.  What is happening if however everything said in Al Gore's movie is one-sided and actually does not represent the truth, while in the IPCC report there is not a single proof of a relation between human activities and climate changes?!

 

The Inconvenient Truth"?

Only a few days ago a judge from the superior court of the UK ruled that Al Gore's movie is exceptionally one-sided, exaggerated and aiming at the dissemination of alarming unconfirmed rumors.  The ground for judge Burton's decision became the idea to distribute and show the movie in the schools in order to achieve better understanding of the problem. This idea provoked the father of two children, who in his efforts to protect them from "brain washing", reached to the Superior Court.

In judge Burton's decision are discussed nine fundamental claims of Al Gore which are absolutely unproven or clearly wrong. After Al Gore's claims are the arguments of the judge:

1) "The raising of the sea level by 20 feet will be caused very soon by melting of  ice sheets" - for the raising of the sea level would be required thousands of years;

2) "The low corral islands in the Pacific Ocean had vanished" - there are no proofs supporting this claim;

3) "The Gulf stream, which is warming up the Atlantic Ocean will suddenly stop" - the probability of this event in the near future is minimal;

4) "The graphics showing "strong relation" between the increase in emissions of carbon dioxide and the increase of the temperature for a period of 650 000 years" - although such relation between the two exists, it does not prove Al Gore's claims;

5) "The disappearance of the snow from Kilimanjaro results from the global warming" - there are not scientific proofs, which will support the thesis that the disappearance of the snow is a result from human activities;

6) "The drying up of the Chad lake is one of the best examples for the catastrophic consequences from the global warming" - the reasons for the drying up are not found yet;

7) "The Katrina hurricane was caused by the global warming" - there are no proofs supporting this claim;

8) "The Polar Bares are dying out (drowning) as they have to swim 60 miles in order to find ice" - recently only four polar bears had been found drowned and it was due to a storm;

9) The corral riffs lose color due to the global warming" - the factors are many (mentioned by Al Gore in the movie) and it is difficult to define the influence of each one.

 

The report of climate change?

The report on climate change of IPCC does not provide a causal relation between human activities and the global warming. The most extreme claim in the report states only "it is possible that". Let us see the connection, indicated in the report, between five fundamental phenomena (caused by climate change) and human activities:

1)      "More and more warm days and nights, respectively less cold days in different regions in the World" - possibly caused by mankind;

2)      "More frequent very hot days" - it is possibly caused by mankind;

3)      "Drought" - more likely yes, than not;

4)      "More tropical storms" - more likely yes, than not;

5)      "The raising of the sea level" - more likely yes, than not.

The authoritative report in defense of the theory of global warming caused by human activities reaches the authoritative conclusions "it is possible"! The same could be said by any man on the street. To put a blind fait in such a claim and a movie with high artistic value and practically zero scientific proofs is simply insane. Pressing the view that there is a consensus in the scientific community on this topic is complete fallacy. Actually from 528 reports about the climate change, only in 38% of them the link between human activities and global warming is mentioned. The climate change and the factors, which cause them, are not facts, which are simply registered, but an open discussion, which in the future will throw more light on this issue.