Between ambition and reality – what reforms are forthcoming in the near future with Recovery Plan for Europe

At last, the national recovery plan for reconstruction and sustainability of Bulgaria is drafted and officially sent to the European Commission at Brussels. Even though being one of the lasts[1], the Bulgarian government has succeeded to catch the “last train” of the “Mechanism for Recovery and Sustainability“ of the EU, hoping that the Commission could hurry up with the review and the approval of the plan and to offer the Council to advance with the payments that the plan entails, so even before the end of 2021 we could get the 13% advance payment from the considered 6.6-billion-euro financial resource. Its rather doubtful that this could happen, but it is not impossible.

The presented plan represents the fifth version of the document, in which every upcoming version corrects and modifies the previous one on key projects and reforms. The current political situation in the country is the main reason for the presence of so many adaptations of the document. The challenge of coming to an agreement, that the caretaker governments are facing with the different representatives of political forces and business, of who is responsible for and for what, is what proves to be an insurmountable obstacle to an earlier conclusion of the plan.

The plan is structured around 4 pillars:

• Innovative Bulgaria – includes projects for investments in education, development of skills, research and innovation, digitalization of industry and others (Total worth of around 3.5 billion BGN)
• Green Bulgaria – includes projects and measures for a “green transformation” (low-carbon economy, biodiversity and bio-agriculture) (Total worth of around 4.9 billion BGN)
• Connected Bulgaria – through this pillar, the projects envisage digital and transport connectivity and local development. (Total value is 2.2 billion BGN)
• Fair Bulgaria – Encompasses projects and reforms in the field of justice, improvement of the business environment, social inclusion and healthcare. (Total value is around 2.3 billion BGN)

According to requirements of the European Commission, every project and reform has to be and should be linked to key indicators and goals, through which the implementation phase will be monitored and evaluated. These indicators can be quantitative or qualitative, and its mandatory for these to have a time-bound commitment for their implementation.

Sending out the Recovery Plan to Brussels from the caretaker government commits Bulgaria to certain political agendas and public investments, but the upcoming undertakings have to be fulfilled by the next government (or governments).

A review of the nearest deadlines for getting to key indicators for the individual reforms shows that for some sectors a very dynamic quarter is ahead – for example in healthcare. In order to accomplish the requirements of the European Commission for financing the plan measures, Bulgaria must have devised and adopted a strategy for reform in the field of the entire health sector for a period of 10 years, and separately, for primary outpatient care, as well as strategy for long-term health care. Each of these strategic documents is relatively big and significant enough for it to be drafted from nothing for three months, as it affects large sectors of public life, on which it is currently difficult to reach agreement.

As opposed to other sectors, such as energy, justice and digital connectivity, the important and significant decisions have already been considered. What is to be done in the first three months of the upcoming year is mainly found in the field of preparation of structures and the question of organization (creation of working groups, formation of commissions, preparation of procedures, etc.) and some are even already completed or about to be finalized. This raises the question of whether the current caretaker government has postponed the essential actions of reforming the sectors in order for someone else to think and implement them in the distant future, or, perhaps, it has acted with the preconceived notion that if actions have to be implemented now, they may fail.

In any case, whatever the reasons for choosing the specific deadlines for the accomplishment of the reforms, there is no reason for the future government to be particularly surprised. (In case the plan gets approved, of course). At the request of the Commission, all investments and reforms in the recovery plans should be in line with both the National Reform Programs and the country-specific recommendations identified in the European Semester Review – documents available and familiar to politicians and the government administration. The new government, however, will have to enter with a “flying start” without leaving the promised measured and reforms for “later”, the non-compliance will lead to delayed payments.

[1] A plan for recovery has not yet been submitted by the Netherlands only.