Analysis of the potential for cultivation of fruit and vegetables in Bulgaria

The purpose of this study is to identify the perspective crops in the vegetable- and fruit-growing sectors from the viewpoint of domestic demand and export potential.

To determine which crops hold the greatest potential, we use two main indicators:

1)      Domestic demand – the quantity of domestic demand is based on data of household consumption and the demand of food processing companies. To minimize the possible weaknesses of such data compilation, we use information for aggregate demand (production + import – export);

2)      Export demand – taking into account that the greater part of the export of fruit and vegetables (84% in 2011) is to other EU member states’ markets, we use data on the import of fruits and vegetables in EU.

The crops with growth potential are identified as such based on observed increase of demand on the domestic and EU markets and also on a competitiveness coefficient greater than zero, derived through the Revealed Competitive Advantage formula.

As a result of the analysis, the examined crops are divided into three groups:

1.       Most perspective crops – i.e. in the cultivation of which Bulgaria has shown competitive advantage after its accession to the EU

2.       Crops with certain potential – crops that need additional efforts and investments to improve their production effectiveness; and/or that experience stable or increasing demand on EU level, despite declining demand in Bulgaria

3.       Crops with no potential – crops that need to undergo drastic improvement of effectiveness (related to enormous investments, production optimization and cost reduction) and/or face permanent decrease in demand.

Fruit

Vegetables

For more information, see the full report.